This listing includes AI condition scoring, neighbourhood intelligence, and market valuation data — giving you a complete picture before you visit. Compare rental yield, price per square metre, and location strength against the broader Portuguese market to assess whether this property fits your investment strategy.
4-bedroom, 3-bathroom house of 180 m², built in 2002, energy rating B. Located Carvoeira parish, Mafra municipality, Lisbon district. Noteworthy Features: The property boasts a traditional Portuguese cobblestone socializing area with a barbecue and wood oven, complemented by a stunning olive tree enhancing its charm and identity.
The valuation. The asking price of €800,000 significantly exceeds the fair value of €536,761, representing an overpriced situation by €263,239 (49.0%). This discrepancy suggests a need for price correction in the current market. Buy-to-flip angle. A buy-to-flip strategy may not yield desired returns, as the property is overpriced and requires a careful analysis of renovation costs versus potential resale values. Quick turnover might be challenging due to the high acquisition cost. Buy-to-let angle. A long-term rental approach could provide a gross yield of 3.4%, with an estimated monthly income of €2,267. However, the mixed neighborhood rating may affect tenant demand and rental stability in the future.
Fair value modelled at €536,761 from 3 comparable sales in the area. Asking €800,000 sits €263,239 (49.0%) above — overpriced versus fair value.
Asking €800,000 versus the Carvoeira, Mafra, Lisbon area baseline of €593,736 (€3,299/m²) for a median-condition unit of this size — the gap before quality adjustments.
AI Condition Index 72/100 is above the parish average, lifting fair value versus a typical-condition unit.
Recent nearby listings price below the wider parish average — a hyper-local discount distinct from the parish baseline.
Base gap of €593,736, adjusted for condition and micro-location, gives a modelled fair value of €536,761 (€2,982/m²), a €263,239 (49.0%) gap versus the €800,000 asking price.
| Reference | Status | Price | €/m² | vs subject | Condition | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carvoeira · 19f712 | Subject | €800,000 | €4,444 | — | 72 | 55 |
| rua Joaquim Almeida Marrão | Active | €920,000 | €2,329 | 47.6% | 75 | 59 |
| Ericeira · 96c60b | Active | €945,000 | €3,098 | 30.3% | — | 65 |
| Ericeira · b7c1c9 | Active | €1,160,000 | €2,982 | 32.9% | 85 | 59 |
| Median comp | €945,000 | €2,982 | 32.9% | 80 | 59 |
Long-term rental This property, priced at €800,000, presents a significant gap of 49.0% compared to its fair value of €536,761, indicating it is overpriced for the long-term rental market. With a gross yield of only 3.4% and a neighborhood rating of 55/100, the investment potential appears limited in this commuter area to Lisbon. Buy-and-hold The €800,000 listing price places this property 49.0% above its fair value of €536,761, suggesting a poor entry point for a buy-and-hold strategy. The combination of low tenant quality and a 3.4% yield reflects the challenges of holding this asset for future appreciation. Not ideal for: Luxury market, Student housing
Market volatility risk With both economic and tenant stability scores at 60/100, there is a heightened risk of market fluctuations impacting rental income and property value, leading to potential financial instability.
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Comparables, condition and location workings, yield and time-to-sell. Written up and emailed to you.
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