This listing includes AI condition scoring, neighbourhood intelligence, and market valuation data — giving you a complete picture before you visit. Compare rental yield, price per square metre, and location strength against the broader Portuguese market to assess whether this property fits your investment strategy.
4-bedroom, 3-bathroom house of 160 m², energy rating B. Located Carvoeira parish, Mafra municipality, Lisbon district. Noteworthy Features: The property boasts a stunning century-old olive tree and a fully equipped leisure area with a wood-fired oven and stone sink, perfect for entertaining family and friends.
The valuation. The asking price of €800,000 exceeds the fair value of €711,111 by €88,889, or 12.5%. This property is considered overpriced based on the current market assessments. Buy-to-flip angle. The strategy would involve renovating to enhance appeal, targeting a resale that capitalizes on improved finishes and location, aiming for quick turnover post-renovation. Buy-to-let angle. With an estimated gross yield of 3.2%, the property could generate approximately €2,133 per month in rental income, appealing to long-term tenants seeking suburban living with proximity to Lisbon.
Fair value modelled at €711,111 from 6 comparable sales in the area. Asking €800,000 sits €88,889 (12.5%) above — overpriced versus fair value.
Asking €800,000 versus the Carvoeira, Mafra, Lisbon area baseline of €767,724 (€4,798/m²) for a median-condition unit of this size — the gap before quality adjustments.
AI Condition Index 75/100 is above the parish average, lifting fair value versus a typical-condition unit.
Recent nearby listings price below the wider parish average — a hyper-local discount distinct from the parish baseline.
Base gap of €767,724, adjusted for condition and micro-location, gives a modelled fair value of €711,111 (€4,444/m²), a €88,889 (12.5%) gap versus the €800,000 asking price.
| Reference | Status | Price | €/m² | vs subject | Condition | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carvoeira · f14df1 | Subject | €800,000 | €5,000 | — | 73 | 53 |
| Carvoeira · 62282a | Active | €800,000 | €4,444 | 11.1% | 72 | 59 |
| autoestrada A21 | Active | €800,000 | €4,444 | 11.1% | 74 | 57 |
| Carvoeira · 65308a | Active | €800,000 | €4,444 | 11.1% | 75 | 57 |
| Carvoeira · 19075a | Active | €800,000 | €4,444 | 11.1% | 74 | 61 |
| Median comp | €800,000 | €4,444 | 11.1% | 74 | 58 |
Long-term rental As the property is overpriced with a significant fair value gap of 12.5%, the investment in long-term rentals may not yield the desired returns. With a gross yield of only 3.2%, it is unlikely to generate substantial cash flow in this competitive rental market. Buy-and-hold Investing in this overpriced property for a long-term hold appears risky, especially given the rural location and lower neighborhood rating of 53/100. The gap versus fair value indicates that appreciation potential is limited, making it a less attractive buy-and-hold option. Value-add renovation While considering a value-add renovation, the current 75/100 condition suggests that improvements could increase property appeal; however, the property remains overpriced by 12.5%. The high initial cost could limit the capacity for a profitable return on investment after renovations in a less desirable neighborhood. Not ideal for The property is not suitable for short-term vacation rentals or the luxury market due to its rural characteristics and overpriced nature, which diminishes short-term profitability. Additionally, its lower neighborhood rating indicates it may not attract student housing demand, further limiting investment viability.
Economic Dependency Risk The property has a low economic stability score of 45/100, indicating potential vulnerability to economic downturns that may affect tenant retention and rental income.
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