This listing includes AI condition scoring, neighbourhood intelligence, and market valuation data — giving you a complete picture before you visit. Compare rental yield, price per square metre, and location strength against the broader Portuguese market to assess whether this property fits your investment strategy.
4-bedroom, 6-bathroom house of 364 m², energy rating A. Located Carvalhal parish, Grândola municipality, Setúbal district. Unique Feature: Nestled within a prestigious collection of only 16 houses, this property offers exclusive access to expansive outdoor spaces, including a rooftop terrace with tranquil views of surrounding pine forests.
The valuation. The asking price of €4,495,000 exceeds the fair value of €625,844 by €3,869,156, indicating an overpriced listing. This represents a staggering 86.1% differential, positioning the property far from a financially sound investment.
Fair value modelled at €625,844 from the area baseline, adjusted for condition and location. Asking €4,495,000 sits €3,869,156 (86.1%) above — overpriced versus fair value.
Asking €4,495,000 versus the Carvalhal, Grândola, Setúbal area baseline of €626,080 (€1,720/m²) for a median-condition unit of this size — the gap before quality adjustments.
AI Condition Index 85/100 (Condition 85 · Materials 90 · Room dimensions 80). Above-median finish quality lifts fair value versus a baseline unit needing CapEx.
Neighbourhood score 51/100 (Housing Market 45 · Amenities 50 · Economic 40 · Tenant Quality 60). Strong amenities and housing-market momentum support a premium to baseline.
Carvalhal, Grândola, Setúbal
Area baseline €626,080 + condition +€45,500 + location +€2,312 = modelled fair value of €625,844 (€1,719/m²), a €3,869,156 (86.1%) gap versus the €4,495,000 asking price.
| Reference | Status | Price | €/m² | vs subject | Condition | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carvalhal · 25f698 | Subject | €4,495,000 | €12,349 | — | 85 | 51 |
| Carvalhal · 65a833 | Active | €950,000 | €6,552 | 46.9% | 85 | 44 |
| Carvalhal · 6d523e | Active | €1,990,000 | €9,045 | 26.8% | — | 47 |
| Grândola e Santa Margarida da Serra · 6d5457 | Active | €3,000,000 | €14,151 | 14.6% | 90 | 49 |
| Carvalhal · 4202af | Active | €2,800,000 | €6,846 | 44.6% | — | 48 |
| Median comp | €2,395,000 | €7,946 | 35.7% | 88 | 48 |
Long-term rental This property is priced at €4,495,000, which reflects an 86.1% premium over its fair value of €625,844, making it an unsuitable option for long-term rental investment. With a gross yield of 0% in a neighbourhood rated 51/100, the potential returns do not justify the inflated listing price. Value-add renovation While there is an opportunity to enhance the property's condition, the substantial gap between the listing price and its fair value indicates that the initial investment is overly steep. The expected return on investment could be significantly hindered by the inflated value of €4,495,000 and limited economic activity in the surrounding rural area.
Low Economic Stability Risk With an economic stability score of 40/100, there is a significant risk of economic downturns affecting rental income and property values.
