This listing includes AI condition scoring, neighbourhood intelligence, and market valuation data — giving you a complete picture before you visit. Compare rental yield, price per square metre, and location strength against the broader Portuguese market to assess whether this property fits your investment strategy.
4-bedroom, 5-bathroom house of 208 m². Located on caminho do Casal da Serra, Igreja Nova e Cheleiros parish, Mafra municipality, Lisbon district. Noteworthy Features: This property boasts a covered gourmet area with a full outdoor kitchen and restroom, alongside a heated pool and expansive leisure spaces for entertaining.**
The valuation. The asking price of €1,500,000 is significantly above fair value at €802,000, marking a difference of €698,000 (87.0%). Verdict: overpriced. Buy-to-flip angle. A resale strategy targeting renovations could yield substantial profits by increasing the property’s appeal in the competitive market. Buy-to-let angle. The estimated rental income of €1,750/month results in a gross yield of only 1.4%, suggesting limited short-term cash flow potential.
Fair value modelled at €802,000 from 6 comparable sales in the area. Asking €1,500,000 sits €698,000 (87.0%) above — overpriced versus fair value.
Asking €1,500,000 versus the caminho do Casal da Serra area baseline of €778,005 (€3,740/m²) for a median-condition unit of this size — the gap before quality adjustments.
AI Condition Index 84/100 is above the parish average, lifting fair value versus a typical-condition unit.
Recent nearby listings price below the wider parish average — a hyper-local discount distinct from the parish baseline.
Base gap of €778,005, adjusted for condition and micro-location, gives a modelled fair value of €802,000 (€3,856/m²), a €698,000 (87.0%) gap versus the €1,500,000 asking price.
| Reference | Status | Price | €/m² | vs subject | Condition | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| caminho do Casal da Serra | Subject | €1,500,000 | €7,212 | — | 80 | 68 |
| Mafra · 6d55d3 | Active | €598,000 | €4,302 | 40.3% | 74 | 58 |
| rua das Casas Novas, 1 | Active | €598,000 | €2,567 | 64.4% | 72 | 55 |
| Igreja Nova e Cheleiros · 15e2e5 | Active | €630,000 | €3,462 | 52.0% | 63 | 66 |
| Igreja Nova e Cheleiros · f364d7 | Active | €510,000 | €4,250 | 41.1% | 72 | 64 |
| Median comp | €598,000 | €3,856 | 46.5% | 72 | 61 |
Family rental This property, while situated in a suburban area with decent access to Lisbon, is significantly overpriced, indicating a limited potential for attracting families looking for rentals. With a gross yield of only 1.4%, it may not provide the financial returns that a typical family rental would require. Long-term rental Given the substantial gap of 87.0% above fair value, this property is not positioned favorably for long-term rental strategies, despite its mix of residential use in the neighborhood. The low yield of 1.4% suggests that securing long-term tenants would not yield a satisfactory return on investment. Buy-and-hold Investing in this property as a buy-and-hold strategy could prove costly due to its current price being far above the fair value of €802,000, reflecting an 87.0% overpricing. The existing yield of 1.4% does not justify the initial investment, leading to a potential decline in capital appreciation over time.
Economic-tenant risk The combined scores of 70/100 for both economic and tenant stability suggest potential vulnerability to economic downturns, which could lead to increased vacancy rates and reduced rental income.
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Comparables, condition and location workings, yield and time-to-sell. Written up and emailed to you.
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