This listing includes AI condition scoring, neighbourhood intelligence, and market valuation data — giving you a complete picture before you visit. Compare rental yield, price per square metre, and location strength against the broader Portuguese market to assess whether this property fits your investment strategy.
4-bedroom, 0-bathroom villa of 220 m². Located Carvalhal parish, Grândola municipality, Setúbal district. This property boasts a stunning rooftop area perfect for entertaining, offering panoramic views of the protected landscape and direct sightlines to the nearby beach.
The valuation. The asking price of €3,650,000 is significantly above the fair value of €374,065, resulting in an overpricing of €3,275,935 or 89.8%. This property is not considered a deal based on its current valuation. Buy-to-flip angle. A resale strategy could involve significant renovations to enhance the property's appeal, aiming for a profit margin upon selling at a higher price once market conditions improve. Considering the upscale finishes, the villa may attract affluent buyers. Buy-to-let angle. With an estimated monthly rental income of €3,346, the gross yield stands at just 1.1%, indicating limited profitability for a long-term rental. The area's rural nature may also pose challenges in attracting tenants willing to pay competitive rates.
Fair value modelled at €374,065 from the area baseline, adjusted for condition and location. Asking €3,650,000 sits €3,275,935 (89.8%) above — overpriced versus fair value.
Asking €3,650,000 versus the Carvalhal, Grândola, Setúbal area baseline of €740,740 (€3,367/m²) for a median-condition unit of this size — the gap before quality adjustments.
AI Condition Index 87/100 (Condition 85 · Materials 90 · Room dimensions 85). Above-median finish quality lifts fair value versus a baseline unit needing CapEx.
Neighbourhood score 48/100 (Housing Market 35 · Amenities 40 · Economic 40 · Tenant Quality 50). Softer demand indicators apply a discount to baseline.
Carvalhal, Grândola, Setúbal
Area baseline €740,740 + condition +€27,500 + location -€2,795 = modelled fair value of €374,065 (€1,700/m²), a €3,275,935 (89.8%) gap versus the €3,650,000 asking price.
| Reference | Status | Price | €/m² | vs subject | Condition | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carvalhal · 82c623 | Subject | €3,650,000 | €16,591 | — | 85 | 48 |
| Carvalhal · 261ff7 | Active | €898,500 | €14,262 | 14.0% | 70 | 45 |
| Comporta · 38996d | Active | €850,000 | €7,083 | 57.3% | 70 | 43 |
| Carvalhal · 956dc3 | Active | €750,000 | €5,357 | 67.7% | 65 | 45 |
| Carvalhal · 49b743 | Active | €750,000 | €5,357 | 67.7% | 65 | 53 |
| Median comp | €800,000 | €6,220 | 62.5% | 68 | 45 |
Long-term rental Given the villa's high listing price of €3,650,000 compared to a fair value of €374,065, it is evident that it is overpriced, resulting in a gross yield of only 1.1%. The limited access to urban amenities and lower neighborhood rating of 48/100 suggest that attracting long-term tenants may prove challenging. Value-add renovation Although the villa's condition is rated at 87/100, indicating good maintenance, the extensive gap of 89.8% from fair value suggests that any renovation efforts will likely not yield a return commensurate with the inflated acquisition cost. In a rural area with limited economic opportunities, the potential for value-added renovations is severely constrained by the market conditions.
Low Economic and Tenant Stability Risk The property is at risk due to an economic stability score of 40/100 and a tenant stability score of 50/100, indicating potential challenges in attracting and retaining reliable tenants.
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Comparables, condition and location workings, yield and time-to-sell. Written up and emailed to you.
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