This listing includes AI condition scoring, neighbourhood intelligence, and market valuation data — giving you a complete picture before you visit. Compare rental yield, price per square metre, and location strength against the broader Portuguese market to assess whether this property fits your investment strategy.
4-bedroom, 3-bathroom house of 190 m², built in 2002, energy rating D. Located on rua da Serra, 4, Carvoeira parish, Mafra municipality, Lisbon district. Noteworthy Features: The property includes a bioclimatic pergola in the garden, designed for outdoor meals, and offers panoramic sea views from the spacious living room, enhancing its entertaining appeal.
The valuation. The asking price of €1,490,000 is significantly higher than the fair value of €697,511, making it overpriced by €792,489 (113.6%). Such a valuation does not present a favorable investment opportunity.
Fair value modelled at €697,511 from 6 comparable sales in the area. Asking €1,490,000 sits €792,489 (113.6%) above — overpriced versus fair value.
Asking €1,490,000 versus the rua da Serra, 4 area baseline of €678,600 (€3,572/m²) for a median-condition unit of this size — the gap before quality adjustments.
AI Condition Index 79/100 is above the parish average, lifting fair value versus a typical-condition unit.
Recent nearby listings price below the wider parish average — a hyper-local discount distinct from the parish baseline.
Base gap of €678,600, adjusted for condition and micro-location, gives a modelled fair value of €697,511 (€3,671/m²), a €792,489 (113.6%) gap versus the €1,490,000 asking price.
| Reference | Status | Price | €/m² | vs subject | Condition | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rua da Serra, 4 | Subject | €1,490,000 | €7,842 | — | 76 | 67 |
| Mafra · 4b8f84 | Active | €840,000 | €3,559 | 54.6% | 80 | 53 |
| Ericeira · 4d4182 | Active | €575,000 | €5,044 | 35.7% | 75 | 65 |
| estrada de Montesouros, 30 | Active | €750,000 | €4,213 | 46.3% | 75 | 64 |
| Ericeira · fe63cc | Active | €575,000 | €3,783 | 51.8% | 70 | 59 |
| Median comp | €662,500 | €3,998 | 49.0% | 75 | 62 |
Long-term rental This property shows a notable gap of 113.6% from its fair value of €697,511, indicating it is overpriced at €1,490,000. With a gross yield of only 2%, the financial return does not justify the investment in this market. Family rental While the suburban area near Lisbon maintains decent demand, the average school quality and neighborhood rating of 67/100 suggest limitations in attracting quality tenants. As such, at the current price, the risks involved in a family rental strategy outweigh the potential rewards. Buy-and-hold The overall condition rating of 79/100 is decent, but considering the substantial gap to fair value, the property does not present a solid buy-and-hold opportunity. Overpaying in this investment might lead to difficulties in attaining long-term capital appreciation. Not ideal for luxury market Despite the property’s attributes, the high asking price does not align with the neighborhood's appeal and typical buyer demographics. The luxury market often requires exceptional offerings, which this property does not fulfill given its average ratings. Not ideal for short-term vacation rental Given the average quality of the neighborhood and safety ratings, this property may struggle to attract tourists or short-term renters at the required price point. The current valuation further complicates the feasibility of capitalizing on short-term rental opportunities.
Tenant turnover risk High tenant turnover is possible due to the relatively low tenant stability score of 65/100, which may lead to increased vacancy periods and associated costs.
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Comparables, condition and location workings, yield and time-to-sell. Written up and emailed to you.
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