This listing includes AI condition scoring, neighbourhood intelligence, and market valuation data — giving you a complete picture before you visit. Compare rental yield, price per square metre, and location strength against the broader Portuguese market to assess whether this property fits your investment strategy.
4-bedroom, 5-bathroom house of 484 m², built in 2021, energy rating A+. Located on avenida Pinhal da Aroeira, Charneca de Caparica e Sobreda parish, Almada municipality, Setúbal district. Noteworthy Features: The property boasts a private estate location with direct access to golf courses and the natural beauty of Herdade da Aroeira, ensuring an exclusive lifestyle immersed in greenery.
The valuation. The asking price of €3,900,000 sits significantly above the fair value of €2,341,199, indicating it is overpriced by €1,558,801 (66.6%). This marks a substantial deviation from market expectations, placing it in a less favorable position for potential buyers. Buy-to-flip angle. A resale strategy would focus on enhancing the aesthetic appeal and possibly adding more value through renovations, but given its current price, flipping this property might not yield a profitable investment. A gross yield of 2.7% suggests limited upside for quick returns. Buy-to-let angle. With an estimated rental income of €8,775/month, a long-term rental strategy may be viable, although the gross yield of 2.7% indicates modest profitability relative to the initial investment. Targeting families in the mixed neighborhood could yield steady occupancy and stable cash flow.
Fair value modelled at €2,341,199 from 6 comparable sales in the area. Asking €3,900,000 sits €1,558,801 (66.6%) above — overpriced versus fair value.
Asking €3,900,000 versus the avenida Pinhal da Aroeira area baseline of €1,830,824 (€3,783/m²) for a median-condition unit of this size — the gap before quality adjustments.
AI Condition Index 89/100 is above the parish average, lifting fair value versus a typical-condition unit.
Recent nearby listings price above the wider parish average — a hyper-local premium distinct from the parish baseline.
Base gap of €1,830,824, adjusted for condition and micro-location, gives a modelled fair value of €2,341,199 (€4,837/m²), a €1,558,801 (66.6%) gap versus the €3,900,000 asking price.
| Reference | Status | Price | €/m² | vs subject | Condition | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| avenida Pinhal da Aroeira | Subject | €3,900,000 | €8,058 | — | 85 | 70 |
| Charneca de Caparica e Sobreda · f36293 | Active | €1,197,000 | €4,534 | 43.7% | 85 | 73 |
| rua Cabo Espichel, 17 | Active | €1,575,000 | €4,688 | 41.8% | 80 | 68 |
| rua Cabo Espichel | Active | €1,575,000 | €4,688 | 41.8% | 78 | 66 |
| Charneca de Caparica e Sobreda · 6226e3 | Active | €1,900,000 | €4,987 | 38.1% | 75 | 68 |
| Median comp | €1,575,000 | €4,688 | 41.8% | 79 | 68 |
Long-term rental Given the current gross yield of 2.7%, the income generated from a long-term rental may not sufficiently justify the property's listing price of €3,900,000, as it significantly exceeds the fair value of €2,341,199. Consequently, potential returns do not align with the high entry cost, indicating the property is overpriced. Buy-and-hold Investing in this property as a buy-and-hold strategy may lead to long-term capital appreciation challenges, given that it is priced 66.6% above its fair value, which might deter future buyers. Such a considerable gap suggests limited upside potential, making this approach less appealing at the current price point. Family rental While the property is situated in a family-friendly area near Greater Lisbon, its substantial asking price relative to fair market value at €2,341,199 puts it at a disadvantage for family rentals that typically seek affordability. The overpriced nature of the property could limit demand for families looking for reasonable housing options in the neighbourhood.
Tenant turnover risk The tenant stability score of 70/100 suggests a moderate risk of tenant turnover, which could lead to potential vacancies and increased turnover costs.
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Comparables, condition and location workings, yield and time-to-sell. Written up and emailed to you.
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